As AI threatens white-collar workers and hits some college graduates looking for entry-level roles, young people are pouring into blue-collar job training programs.
Before the pandemic, the trade school market “had been largely stagnant,” according to a March report from the higher education marketing and research firm Validated Insights. Now, fall enrollment at trade schools is expected to grow 6.6% a year.
“There’s nothing wrong with blue collar. There’s nothing wrong with getting your hands a little dirty and sweating a little bit, and making a little bit of money in the process,” said David Rames, senior product manager at Midea, a producer of major home appliances like air conditioners and fridges that has teamed up with more than a dozen trade schools to help train upcoming HVAC technicians.
“We don’t have to worry about AI,” he said, “because AI can’t install an HVAC system.”
Trade schools are just one option for people looking to get into work like welding, plumbing, and HVAC installation. Enrollment at public two-year community college programs focused on vocational and trade programs has surged nearly 20% since 2020, compared to a 2.1% increase at public four-year institutions, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. And registered apprenticeships, where trainees can earn money while they learn, have similarly been on the rise over the past several years.
And, because there’s a shortage of HVAC workers and high demand for their services, “the price for HVAC contractors has risen greatly,” said Rames.
That’s not the only trade that can pay well, especially depending on the number of hours worked and years of experience gained. Rames noted that after working in the plumbing industry, his son had $55,000 excess cash to park in long-term investments at 22 years old.
“When I tell these kids these stories, their eyes get huge,” Rames said.
In a 1,000-person survey from Zety, an online resume templates service, more than half of Gen Z workers said they were seriously considering blue-collar or skilled trade fields. AI, as well as blue-collar jobs’ pay and opportunities, factored into their thinking.
Jasmine Escalera, a career expert at Zety, sees this shift as part of an overall “AI-xiety pivot,” where young people are rethinking their careers and whether a degree is worthwhile. She noted that on top of fears about AI replacing entry-level positions, young people may also be less interested in climbing the corporate ladder and eager to avoid the woes of the jobless college grads they see on social media.
“When it comes to the safe job that will always exist, I don’t know if there are many of those anymore,” Escalera said. “I think a lot of positions are going to be changed due to AI. Whether they will completely disappear, we don’t know.”
Geoff Bell, a HVAC technician with Texas Pride Air Conditioning and Heating, tests the refrigerant levels in an air conditioning unit during a heat wave in Houston, Texas. REUTERS/Adrees Latif ·REUTERS / Reuters
Gen Z workers may now wonder why they should go into debt for a bachelor’s degree to join careers that may look drastically different several years from now, thanks to technological advancements.
What feels more certain: “Plumbers will always have jobs,” Escalera said.
A paper this month from Stanford University researchers found there have already been “substantial declines in employment for early-career workers (ages 22-25) in occupations most exposed to AI,” like software engineers, while employment trends for less-exposed occupations like nursing aides were stable or growing.
Trades jobs aren’t all roses, though. In the Zety survey, 38% of Gen Zers cited “physical labor demands as their biggest hesitation” in going totally blue collar.
Still, young people remain interested. Brandon Milligan, the chief operations officer at StrataTech Education Group, which operates several skilled trade schools, is seeing a growing student population that includes women, recent high school graduates, and even some people switching careers. Overall enrollment was up 7% in July from a year ago.
“Typically, our students are able to start their education journey and, for a relatively low cost compared to traditional education, attend a seven- to nine-month program and immediately get to working,” Milligan said. “It’s very attractive for someone who is not of the mindset to invest four to five years pursuing a bachelor’s degree and … who really wants to work with their hands.”
Their programs, which include HVAC, welding, electrical work, and more, cost about $20,000 to $25,000. The electrical program in particular is very popular, he said.
David McLean, 23, has graduated from StrataTech’s Tulsa Welding School in Jacksonville twice with four total certifications in welding, electrical, HVAC, and solar. Based currently in Virginia Beach, Va., he now works as an electrician installing security systems.
Starting out, electrical work can pay $20 to $30 hourly, he said, but ramps up to $45 and more with experience. McLean’s job is also set to pay him to go back to school to take an online project management course and is helping him with past student loan payments. He expects to be salaried soon.
“The pay is absolutely amazing — and the workload,” McLean said.
With a career in the trades, he’s been able to invest in three properties.
“Electrical will be the reason why I buy my fourth one next year,” he said.
