USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8170 tried to resume late last week. Initial bias stays mildly on the downside this week. The current favored case is that corrective rebound from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8170. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.7910 support, and then retest 0.7871. Nevertheless, break of 0.8075 minor resistance will argue that the corrective rise is still in progress and bring retest of 0.8170 first.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
