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Early in my professional investing career, I learned that no matter how much you think you know, the market knows more.
So while we should always try to assess where a stock or sector is headed, the better way to trade is with a simple framework: Any stock can go up and thus be a source of profits. However, owning each stock comes with different levels of risk, at different times.
That’s why, when I see a stock like United Healthcare (UNH), I remind myself, and you, that when a stock has been a headline-level bust all year, it sets up two scenarios. The first is that it has giant upside potential, as investors reconsider it. And, second is that it has about as much risk of major loss as it has just demonstrated.
UNH’s issues started with a horrific public tragedy, and then a self-induced set of behaviors and processes that put it in the crosshairs of regulators. And, in turn, investors.
This month, some of those headwinds suddenly reversed, as major investors including Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) and David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management announced investment positions in the troubled healthcare giant and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) member. But UNH is still facing a lot of issues.
So, in my world, that means it’s time to talk about collaring the stock using options, and pointing to Barchart’s very well-organized and time-saving options data for help.
Here’s why UNH is a great collar setup to me. The stock is way down, what I call a “dog collar” situation.
UNH dove in price with the market in early April, but its potential legal trouble surfaced around the time the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and other broad market indicators rallied back. The stock has gone from approaching its all-time high in early April, to less than half its $600 high-water mark for 2025.
Ah, but then the white knights of Wall Street appeared. And UNH is still a very robust business, a healthcare leader. So this creates a dichotomy of sorts. And increases the chances of a big move in either direction. This is exactly the best scenario for collars, if you are a risk manager like I insist on being.
For those who believe that if you “just buy and hold great stocks” everything will work out, UNH is a cautionary tale. Few, if any, stocks are immune to long stretches in which they do not produce any returns. In the case of UNH, its 12% pop on Friday brought its return for last week above 20%. Impressive. But that only brings it back to where it traded during the middle part of 2020! Risk happens, and it happens fast sometimes.
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