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The US dollar is extending its decline that began in New York trading yesterday, with EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD all trading near session lows as US traders come on board. In today’s video, I review the key moves and lay out the risk and bias-defining levels for each pair—what needs to happen to keep the downside momentum going, and what would disappoint traders looking for more follow-through.
On the data front, the second estimate of Q2 US GDP will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Markets are looking for a 3.1% annualized pace versus the initial 3.0% print. The core PCE price index is expected to edge higher to 2.6% from 2.5%, while the GDP deflator is forecast to hold steady at 2.0%. This is backward-looking data, so the market reaction may be limited. At the same time, weekly jobless claims are expected to dip to 230K from 235K last week, with continuing claims seen little changed at 1.97M. Later at 10 AM, pending home sales for July are projected to slip by -0.1% after a -0.8% decline previously.
In equities, premarket US stocks are mixed following earnings from Nvidia. The chipmaker beat expectations but not by a wide margin, reporting EPS $1.08 vs exp. $1.01 and revenue $46.74B vs exp. $46.05B. Despite the beat, shares are down -1.2% premarket. CrowdStrike and Snowflake also reported after the bell yesterday, adding to a heavy earnings calendar.
Yesterday the S&P closed at a new record high (it’s 19th for the year). It is down marginally today. The NASDAQ is also lower but the Dow industrial average is marginally higher:
- Dow industrial average for 63 points
- S&P index -2.15 points
- NASDAQ index -28.35 points
in the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end marginally higher today and the longer end of the yield curve marginally lower:
- 2-year yield 3.631%, +0.8 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.707%, +0.2 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.234%, -0.4 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.905%, -0.7 basis points
looking at other markets,:
- Crude oil is currently trading down $0.06 at $64.09
- Gold is trading up $6.26 or 0.19% at $3405.
- Bitcoin is trading up $1657 at $112,930.
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