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After concluding H1 2025 with growth of 3% YoY, the ASEAN LV market began H2 with a decline of 1% YoY, primarily driven by negative sales results in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
In Indonesia, LV sales dropped by 17% YoY in July, while recent data indicates that demand continued to fall by 19% YoY in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of double-digit declines. This contributed to an overall decrease of 10% YoY across January-August as a whole. A similar trajectory is likely in September, with sales anticipated to continue falling due to nationwide protests from late August to early September. Although the protests have temporarily ended following the President’s cabinet reshuffle and acceptance of the protesters’ demands, known as the “17+8 demands”, these events have increased political uncertainty and will likely hinder LV volumes.
As such, the sales outlook for Indonesia has been revised downward in the long term due to: a) political uncertainty and the possibility of protest recurrence; b) the Bank of Indonesia reporting a decrease in consumer income while debt payments have increased, implying reduced spending and purchasing power; and c) uncertainty surrounding new capital projects after the current president cut the budget for these initiatives, which may lead to their scaling down or complete cancelation. As a result, Indonesia’s 2025 volumes are now projected to stand at 720k units, the lowest annual total seen in 15 years, except for 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In Malaysia, LV sales dropped by 2% YoY in July, although the actual total reached 71k units, which is significantly higher than the monthly average for January-July 2025, of 64k units. Based on registration data, August sales increased by 3% YoY and 5% MoM to 75k units, marking the highest monthly sales total for the year so far, followed by 73k units in March and 71k units in July. The growth in August was largely driven by the delivery of newly launched models from Chinese brands, particularly the BYD Atto 2, Chery Tiggo Cross, and Omoda C9, as well as new introductions from the national brand, including the Proton eMas7 BEV and the upgraded X50. Additionally, ongoing price reductions have stimulated new vehicle sales.
Malaysia’s LV sales outlook for 2025 has been revised slightly upward to 790k units, owing to the stronger-than-expected performance seen in August. Furthermore, Q4 2025 is likely to see a boost as consumers rush to buy before price hikes occur in 2026; the government is set to change the tax calculation methodology, referred to as Open Market Value (OMV), which will increase the prices of locally produced models. OMV was initially planned for implementation in January 2020 but has been postponed until January 2026. Additionally, the tax exemption for imported BEVs will expire in December 2025.
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