Shopify(NASDAQ: SHOP) has minted a lot of millionaires over the past decade. The Canadian e-commerce services provider went public in 2015 at a split-adjusted price of $1.70, and it now trades at around $120. A $15,000 investment in its IPO would be worth a whopping $1.06 million today.
But can Shopify replicate those millionaire-making gains over the next 10 years? Let’s review its competitive advantages, growth rates, and valuations to decide.
Image source: Getty Images.
Shopify’s self-service e-commerce platform allows merchants to set up their own online stores, process payments, fulfill orders, and manage their digital marketing campaigns. That one-stop shop is an appealing option for merchants that don’t want to join a massive third-party marketplace like Amazon.
From 2014 to 2024, Shopify’s revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56%. During that decade, it expanded its ecosystem with its Shop Pay digital payments platform, Shopify Capital financing services, Shopify Plus service for larger enterprise merchants, and point-of-sale systems for brick-and-mortar stores. It united its merchants on its consumer-facing Shop app, integrated its services into more social media platforms, expanded internationally, and facilitated more cross-border transactions with Shopify Markets.
Shopify’s growth accelerated during the pandemic as more businesses scrambled to expand their online businesses. Its soaring gross merchandise volume (GMV), gross payment volume (GPV), and total revenues — along with the broader meme stock rally — drove its stock to a record closing price of $169.06 on Nov. 19, 2021.
Metric
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
GMV growth
96%
47%
12%
20%
24%
GPV growth
110%
59%
24%
29%
32%
Revenue growth
86%
57%
21%
26%
26%
Data source: Shopify.
Shopify’s growth cooled off in 2022 as it lapped its pandemic-driven gains. Inflation, higher interest rates, and other macro headwinds exacerbated that slowdown. But in 2023 and 2024, its GMV and GPV growth accelerated again as the macro environment stabilized, it rolled out more AI tools for its merchants, it integrated Amazon’s “Buy with Prime” buttons into its platform, and it expanded its overseas and enterprise segments to curb its dependence on its smaller North American merchants.
Shopify originally wanted to build its own first-party logistics network. But in 2023, it divested its entire logistics division, laid off thousands of employees, and aggressively reined in its spending to stabilize its margins. That strategic shift was abrupt, but it helped it turn profitable again in 2023 and 2024 (from a steep loss in 2022).
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Shopify’s revenue and earnings per share to grow at a CAGR of 22% and 7%, respectively. Its core business should keep expanding, but its near-term margins could be compressed by tariffs, which would hurt its merchants that rely heavily on overseas products and threaten its growing dependence on bigger enterprise customers, which mostly generate lower-margin revenues than its smaller merchants.
But at $120 per share with a market cap of $158.5 billion, Shopify already trades at 87 times next year’s earnings and 12 times next year’s sales. Its early-mover advantage in the e-commerce services space, the stickiness of its platform, and its robust growth rates might support that higher valuation — but could also set it up for a steep drop in a market downturn. For Shopify to turn a $15,000 investment into $1,000,000 again, its stock would need to rise nearly 6,570% to $8,000 and boost its market cap to $10.6 trillion. For reference, Nvidia — the world’s most valuable publicly traded company — is worth $4.2 trillion.
Therefore, it seems unlikely that Shopify, which is growing its maturing business at a much slower rate than it did over the past decade, will come anywhere close to achieving those millionaire-making gains. That said, it could still be a great way to profit from the long-term expansion of the booming e-commerce market.
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