Speaking on an ETMarkets Livestream, Jafer explained the confluence of factors propelling Bitcoin’s surge past $123,000 earlier in July 2025 and why the best is yet to come.
A Tipping Point in the Market Cycle
Jafer emphasizes that the current crypto landscape is “nothing short of historic.” Bitcoin’s ascent to new all-time highs, a figure many once dismissed as speculative, is proving the asset class’s resilience and power.
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The entire crypto sector is experiencing serious momentum, with altcoins waking up and capital flowing into diverse sectors. “We are at a tipping point in the market cycle right now,” Jafer asserts, backing his claims with historical data, bullish macro news, and on-chain metrics.
Key Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Explosive Rally
Anush Jafer highlights four primary forces fueling Bitcoin’s current performance:Institutional Floodgates Have Opened: The most significant factor is the unprecedented scale of institutional participation, largely thanks to Bitcoin spot ETFs launched last year. These ETFs have attracted over $13.5 billion in net inflows year-to-date, nearly matching 70% of gold ETF inflows in the same timeframe. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone has pulled in close to $15 billion, demonstrating that “Wall Street is coming in with full force.” This provides traditional investors a compliant and easy way to access Bitcoin, opening the door for retirement funds, hedge funds, and family offices.Corporate Treasuries Are Piling In: Beyond ETFs, there’s a massive wave of corporate adoption. In Q2 alone, public companies added roughly 159,000 BTC to their balance sheets, worth over $17 billion. This is nearly four times more than the new bitcoins mined in that quarter, creating a classic supply shock. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and even unexpected players like GameStop and Trump Media are strategically treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset, effectively taking coins off the market for long periods.
Whales Are Accumulating, Not Selling: Despite prices reaching $123,000, large holders, or “whales,” are not taking profits. On-chain data reveals that the number of addresses holding 100 Bitcoins or more has hit a new all-time high, increasing from 16,000 to over 18,600 since October last year. These long-term holders and wealthy individuals are “leaning in” and buying more, demonstrating strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
ETMarkets.comFavorable Regulatory Shift in the US: Jafer considers the “regulation” in the US a “game-changer” that hasn’t been fully priced in. The shift under the new administration, marked by “crypto week,” saw the passing of three major pro-crypto bills:
a)The Clarity Act: Provides a clear framework for distinguishing digital assets as commodities or securities, firmly recognizing Bitcoin as a commodity.
b)The Stablecoin Transparency (GENIUS) Act: Introduces clear rules around reserves and audits for stablecoins, ensuring more liquidity for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
c)The Anti-CBDC Act: Bans the US government from launching a retail central bank digital currency, signaling a preference for decentralized crypto over state-controlled digital money. This regulatory clarity removes uncertainty and sets a strong precedent for other nations to follow.
The Macroeconomic Undercurrent: Global M2 Money Supply
Beyond crypto-specific factors, Jafer points to the global M2 money supply as a quiet but powerful force. M2, a broad measure of money circulating in the global economy, shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price, with a lag of roughly 60 to 90 days.
“Global money printing today equals the Bitcoin rally two-three months later,” Jafer explains. With global M2 turning higher in February, Bitcoin’s subsequent rally in May and July aligns perfectly with this “textbook macro to BTC playbook.”
Understanding the Cycle: We’re Still Early
Addressing the common question, “Is it too late to enter?”, Jafer stresses the importance of understanding Bitcoin’s consistent market cycles. Historically, Bitcoin tends to hit its cycle peak roughly 525 to 546 days after each halving. Given the latest halving in April 2024, this projects a peak between early October to mid-November this year.
“We’re not at the top yet,” Jafer clarifies, “but we’re absolutely in that acceleration phase.” While a correction is inevitable, as markets don’t move in a straight line, Jafer believes the increased institutional and corporate involvement could mitigate the severity of past corrections. For investors, this means being in the “heart of the bull run” and still within a “zone of opportunity.”
The Coming Altcoin Season
While Bitcoin takes the spotlight, Jafer notes that the altcoin space is showing “very, very interesting” signs. Historically, altcoins lag behind Bitcoin during the early stages of a bull market but move fast once they start.
The recent slip in Bitcoin dominance (from 66% to 62%) signals that investors are rotating capital into other parts of the market, hinting at the earliest signs of an altcoin season. Jafer advises monitoring key indicators to spot this shift before it fully takes place.
In conclusion, Anush Jafer’s analysis paints a compelling picture of Bitcoin’s current rally. It’s not just a surge but a “perfect storm” of rising institutional demand, corporate adoption, whale accumulation, favorable regulation, and supportive macroeconomic trends. For investors, the message is clear: trust the cycle, remain informed, and recognize that despite Bitcoin’s impressive highs, this could truly be just the beginning.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
