The anticipated growth is largely attributed to robust volume expansion from recent acquisitions, modest price hikes across key markets, and improved operational efficiency.
Brokerages estimate sales volumes between 12% and 18% YoY higher, driven by both organic momentum and inorganic contributions.
Kotak expects total volumes at 34.4 million tonnes, up 11.5% YoY, while Motilal and Nuvama also attribute the increase to prior acquisitions. However, on a like-to-like basis (excluding acquisitions), Motilal estimates a 6% YoY volume growth.
Here’s what to expect from Ultratech Q1
Kotak Equities
We factor in volumes of 34.4 million tons (+11.5% YoY, -7.3% QoQ) during the quarter led by past acquisitions. We estimate blended realizations to increase 2.2% QoQ (+2.4% YoY) on account of price hikes in most regions during the quarter. We estimate costs/ton to increase by 2.1% QoQ (-3.6% YoY) led by operating deleverage and higher fuel costs. We estimate EBITDA/ton to marginally increase sequentially to Rs 1,274/ton (+32% YoY, +2.8% QoQ) led by price hikes during the quarter, partially offset by higher costs.
Nuvama
Grey cement volumes are expected to rise 18% YoY aided by acquisitions. Grey cement realisations to rise 1.75% QoQ. Overall, blended EBITDA/t may rise to Rs 1,084 as against Rs 951 in the same quarter previous year.
Motilal
Sales volume (consolidated) is expected to increase 17% YoY, aided by inorganic growth. However, on a like-to-like basis, Ultratech Cement’s volume growth is estimated at 6% YoY. Blended realization is likely to increase 3% YoY. RMC revenue is expected to increase 13% YoY, whereas white cement revenue is expected to be flat YoY. Variable cost per ton is expected to be flat YoY and opex/t is expected to decline 2% YoY. We expect EBITDA/t at Rs 1,186 vs Rs 951/Rs 1,126 in 1QFY25/4QFY25. Depreciation/interest expenses are estimated to increase 37%/90% YoY. Adj PAT is estimated to increase 32% YoY.
Phillip Capital
Volume growth seen at +12% YoY; -13% QoQ. Blended realisations seen +4% YoY; +4% QoQ. EBITDA/tonne seen at Rs 1,244 (+31% YoY; +10% QoQ).
YES Securities
We estimate blended EBITDA/tn at Rs 1,287 for Q1FY26, up 35% YoY and 14% QoQ. This is driven by strong volume growth (+31% YoY, +2% QoQ) and cost reduction (opex/tn down 7.2% YoY and 2.9% QoQ), despite weak realizations (flat YoY, +1% QoQ). We expect realizations from white cement and RMC to offset the muted pricing in grey cement.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
