Brokerages expect consolidated revenue to rise between 8–13% YoY in Q1FY26, slower than the 17% expansion seen in Q4FY25 but in line with the company’s long-term growth trajectory. Volume growth across the portfolio is pegged at around 5%, with pricing playing a moderate role in topline performance.
Domestic beverages, a key contributor to TCPL’s earnings, are likely to see 3–4% volume growth and 6–7% value growth, aided by stabilisation in tea consumption and price hikes.
Nuvama and Kotak suggest that tea inflation remains a concern, although the full impact is expected to ease in the second half as tea leaf prices decline.
NourishCo, which was a growth standout last year, may deliver flattish revenues this quarter, weighed down by a subdued summer, unseasonal rains, and softer out-of-home consumption.
The India Foods business is expected to remain a bright spot. Salt—the flagship category under this segment—is likely to clock 13% growth, driven by both volume expansion and recent price hikes.Value-added salt variants are expected to outperform the base portfolio. Tata Sampann and Soulfull are likely to report strong double-digit gains, pushing the overall India Foods segment to a 14–18% revenue growth range.International operations, which had shown volatility in recent quarters, are likely to clock 4–8% growth in constant currency terms. Strong pricing action in US Coffee in June is expected to offset some sluggishness. Still, the segment remains under watch for volatility in foreign markets and input costs.
The non-branded business, which includes plantations and solubles is likely to see muted growth due to a sharp fall in Robusta coffee prices and lower mark-to-market gains.
This, combined with inflation in Indian tea and the normalisation of margins in the unbranded business, is expected to weigh on the company’s profitability metrics.
Across brokerages, EBITDA margin is seen contracting sharply—by 250–300 basis points YoY, settling near 12.9%, compared to 15.3% in the same period last year. Operating profit is projected to decline between 5–6% YoY.
The impact of lower gross margins is partially offset by benign interest costs and lower depreciation, which should help TCPL post mid-single-digit earnings growth at the net level.
Gross margins are expected to decline around 320–340 basis points, impacted by tea inflation in the India business and weak realizations in international and non-branded segments.
However, there are early signs of commodity tailwinds on the horizon—particularly the correction in coffee prices and a normal tea crop outlook—which may support margin recovery in the latter half of FY26.
With a diversified portfolio, expanding distribution, and steady consumer demand, Tata Consumer remains structurally well-placed. But Q1 results are likely to reflect a transitional quarter, where strong revenue execution meets temporary cost and margin headwinds.
Investors will be keenly watching management commentary on rural demand trends, input price dynamics, and the performance trajectory of new businesses.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
