Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty ended in the red zone for the third consecutive week. What are the charts hinting at for the rest of the July series? Will it be tough to move above 25k?
Nifty witnessed a short-term correction of about 3%, dragging the index below the 25,000 mark. However, it found initial support around 24,900. Notably, the index has remained above the 50-day exponential moving average (50EMA) and appears poised for a short-term pullback following the recent decline. That said, the crucial resistance level is placed at 25,260; unless the Nifty surpasses this level, selling pressure may persist at higher levels. On the downside, a break below 24,900 could intensify selling, potentially pulling the index down towards 24,500.
Nifty, Nifty Bank’s movement on Monday would depend largely on how the market reacts to heavyweight earnings of HDFC Bank, RIL and ICICI Bank. How would you play the market on Monday specifically? Any trading opportunity that you see in heavyweights?
Bank Nifty has slipped out of a recent consolidation on the daily chart, intensifying weakness within the banking space ahead of earnings announcements from the two major banks—HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. However, it is still holding above the 50-day exponential moving average (50EMA), currently placed around 55,900, which may act as initial support. The RSI has shown a decisive breakdown on the daily timeframe, indicating potential for further downside. The current setup suggests a likely extension of weakness in the short term, with selling pressure expected to intensify below 55,900. A meaningful recovery may only come if both HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank deliver strong earnings results. Along with it, the Nifty is also likely to witness a swift recovery if RIL, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank deliver an overall strong performance.
Defence stocks are witnessing sustained selling pressure amid lack of positive triggers. Do you see signs of more selling pressure building in or are we at oversold levels?
The defence stock has witnessed a 10–30% correction in recent weeks, primarily due to profit-taking by investors. Although the decline has been sharp and swift, the correction may continue for a few more days, involving both price and time consolidation. Indicators also suggest there is room for further downside. Therefore, it may be prudent to wait a little longer before re-entering the stock or averaging if you had bought at higher levels.
Patanjali Foods was one of the biggest gainers in the week. How to trade in the week ahead?
The stock has given a consolidation breakout on the weekly timeframe and appears poised for further upside. It faces resistance in the 2011–2020 zone. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger a strong rally, potentially taking the stock towards 2400. On the downside, support is placed at 1770.
Do you see more upside in GMDC after Friday’s 15% rally?
GMDC witnessed a spectacular rally on Friday, gaining over 15% on an intraday basis. The weekly chart shows strong momentum, indicating the potential for further upside in the short term. While the stock may continue its upward move with a sharp and aggressive pace, a pullback could offer a better entry opportunity following such a steep single-session rise.
Give us your top ideas for the week.
Buy JUBLPHARMA @ Rs 1,235 | Target: Rs 1,330 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,194
The stock has broken above multiple resistance levels on the daily chart, reflecting increasing bullish sentiment. It continues to trade above a key moving average, and the formation of higher highs and higher lows suggests an ascending trend. In the near term, the stock is expected to move towards Rs 1,330. On the downside, Rs 1,194 serves as crucial support—breaching this level could turn the sentiment bearish.
Buy SAIL @ Rs 136.60 | Target: Rs 143 | Stop Loss: Rs 132
SAIL has broken out of a consolidation phase, pointing to renewed strength. It is trading above a key moving average and has also held above the previous swing high on the daily chart—both signs of a bullish setup. In the short term, the stock could head towards Rs 143. However, if it breaks below Rs 132, it may invite selling pressure.
Buy AADHARHFC @ Rs 503 | Target: Rs 530 | Stop Loss: Rs 484
AADHARHFC has given a swing high breakout on the weekly chart, signalling improved sentiment. It continues to sustain above a key weekly moving average, while the RSI has confirmed a bullish crossover and is trending upward. As long as the stock holds above Rs 490, the outlook remains positive, with a potential move towards Rs 530 in the short term.
