ET Now: This week we have ended below 25,000 mark, but the concerns, the tensions, the news flow remains the same as it was there last week. I want to understand from you how do you assess the market direction now vis-à-vis the news flow still remains the same?
Sudip Bandyopadhyay: Two distinct streams of info and news flow we need to keep our eyes on. One is what is happening in the global front and predominantly that is dominated by the trade deal which India and US are expected to sign; now that has been since the 9th of July and we are still waiting. There are multiple news coming but till the time the deal is in front of us, we do not know exactly what it is, so it is kind of a lot of companies, lot of businesses, and the market is on tenterhooks. So that is one part of the uncertainty which is plaguing the market.
The second part is, of course, corporate results. It is nothing great which is coming out. By and large it is around expectations. Leave aside JSW Steel which has beaten the expectations or Wipro who has given a very good forecast about their next H2 as well as Q2 but by and large the results have been subdued.
So, considering the valuation at which most of the stocks were trading and considering the uncertainty and subdued Q1 results, the market is drifting downwards, that is our view. Till the time there is a concrete positive news flow around the trade deal or good corporate results come out, we will continue to hover around this with a negative bias.
ET Now: You mentioned about distinction about two types of news flow, one was earnings and one was, of course, the global news flow which is continuing. In terms of earnings, this weekend and today actually is very-very important because Reliance is coming, you will have ICICI, HDFC Bank all the heavy weights especially for Nifty, the earnings are due this weekend. Do you think there could be a different direction when we meet on Monday?
Sudip Bandyopadhyay: Oh yes. these three stocks together is about 30% of Nifty weightage, so definitely if they come up with results which gives a direction one way or the other, market will move. As far as both the banks are concerned, expectations are mixed. After the Axis results came out, there are a lot of concerns as well, particularly on the growth side. Let us wait and watch what happens. But yes, you are absolutely right if they give some results which is indicating a direction, market will take the cue and move.
ET Now: What is going to be your view, especially on tier II, talking about the midcap IT space, do you think that is going to be exciting and someone who really wants to stay put in this particular sector should be looking on the tier II counters or maybe initiating something, so they have a better projection?
Sudip Bandyopadhyay: Well, two things. One is tier II, I will definitely look forward to Coforge numbers. This is one company which has been beating expectations and performing exceedingly well. So, I would definitely watch for their numbers.
But if I have to pick something from the entire universe, probably I will look at the largecap once only and Wipro definitely deserves a look considering the confidence with which management is reiterating that their Q2 numbers as well as H2 numbers will be much better.
So, yes, Wipro is talking about coming back to growth and valuation-wise also it is attractive, so, one can look at that. As far as the other midcap IT companies are concerned, one has to be extremely careful about the valuation. Look at LTIMindtree. The numbers were pretty good. Management commentary was good, but the stock is still correcting because the valuation was and still is a bit rich.
ET Now: You did mention about your pick in the IT sector, but I want to ask about defence sector as well. How do you see this sector performing particularly on Friday, it was a kind of a dragger?
Sudip Bandyopadhyay: Fundamentally, I do like defence and it is a long-term bet. And one has to remember that the valuations are not cheap. So, if you are looking at a long-term investment, long-term view, some of the defence stocks even at current valuation definitely good because they have a strong order book, they will continue getting better and more and more orders. The execution will be phased over a period of time and over a period of time valuation will catch up and move ahead of the current fundamentals. But as things stand today, the valuation is far ahead of the fundamentals, and to expect a short, medium-term significant upside, it is bit unrealistic considering where these companies are positioned.
ET Now: How do you look at metals because that is always a new specific sector? I want to understand from you because there has been lot of news flow recently and metal has been…, if you see past one week, it has gained momentum of around 1%, but again it is much dependent on the global news flow.
Sudip Bandyopadhyay: Absolutely right. Metal is always a sector which has lot of global inputs and at this stage if I look at a medium to long-term trend, the trend is positive undoubtedly and metals over a period of time will do well. Short-term fluctuations, short-term price movements will be there and there will be volatility because inherently with global news flows and global demand-supply prices of metals move and hence the stocks also move, but from a long-term point of view these are positive, particularly on domestic scenario I do like Vedanta quite a bit and this is in spite of all the reports and other things which are coming out.
Fundamentally, the company is in strong businesses and there is a significant value unlocking happening and it is not a matter of speculation, it is happening, it has already happened, the execution is getting done. So, it is a matter of time before the benefit of value unlocking accrues to the Vedanta shareholders as well. So, yes, if somebody has to look at metals, Vedanta definitely would. Apart from Vedanta, we do like Hindustan Zinc also. Zinc, of course, they are the leaders and all that. Along with that, silver and both these two metals are gaining momentum significantly. The company is doing exceedingly well and one can look at Hindustan Zinc as well.
