Previews from Nuvama Institutional Equities, JM Financial, ICICI Securities, and Kotak Institutional Equities have been taken into account.
Here’s what they said on these 5 key metrics:
1) PAT Likely to Drop YoY
Brokerages expect Eternal’s Q1FY26 profit after tax (PAT) to decline significantly on a year-on-year basis, largely due to continued losses in Blinkit and elevated costs in the Going Out business.- Nuvama pegs PAT at Rs 74.3 crore, down 71% YoY, but up 90% QoQ.
– JM Financial estimates PAT at Rs 78 crore, down 69% YoY, up 101% QoQ.
– ICICI Securities projects a more conservative figure of Rs 28 crore, down 89% YoY and 29% QoQ.
– Kotak Institutional Equities expects PAT at Rs 31 crore, down 88% YoY and 21% QoQ.
2) Revenue: Strong Growth Driven by Blinkit and Hyperpure
Eternal is expected to post robust top-line growth, led by strong momentum in Blinkit, Hyperpure, and steady demand in food delivery.
“We expect Q1FY26 revenue growth at 59% YoY, driven by 18% YoY growth in food delivery revenue (18% YoY GMV growth), 75% YoY growth in Hyperpure revenue, and 113% YoY growth in Blinkit revenue (124% YoY GMV growth),” Kotak said in a note. “Rapid store additions (we model period-ending store count of 1,551) will drive Blinkit’s growth.”
– Nuvama forecasts revenue at Rs 6,596 crore, up 57% YoY, 13% QoQ.
– JM Financial pegs it slightly higher at Rs 6,617 crore, up 57% YoY, 13% QoQ.
– ICICI Securities is more bullish at Rs 7,081 crore, up 57% YoY, 14% QoQ.
– Kotak Equities expects Rs 6,682 crore, up 59% YoY, 15% QoQ, with Blinkit GMV up 124% YoY.
3) EBITDA: Sequential Improvement, YoY Pressure
While EBITDA is set to jump quarter-on-quarter due to operating leverage, higher losses in Blinkit and continued cost pressures in food delivery are expected to weigh on YoY performance.
“We expect an EBITDA loss of Rs 180 crore for Blinkit, flat QoQ. A 10-bps margin improvement is likely from reduced competitive intensity. However, YoY EBITDA will still decline due to increased losses in Blinkit and Going Out businesses,” said Kotak.
– Nuvama: Rs 165 crore, down 6.5% YoY, up 130% QoQ
– JM Financial: Rs 168 crore, down 5.2% YoY, up 133% QoQ
– ICICI Securities: Rs 201 crore, down 33% YoY, up 22% QoQ
– Kotak Equities: Rs 130 crore, down 26.5% YoY, up 81% QoQ
4) EBITDA Margins: Sequential Uptick, YoY Weakness
– Nuvama: 2.5%, down from 4.2% in Q1FY25, but up from 1.2% in Q4FY25
– ICICI Securities: 2.8%, down 378 bps YoY, up 17 bps QoQ
– Kotak Equities: 1.9%, down 227 bps YoY, up 71 bps QoQ
5) Key Monitorables
Investors should closely track Blinkit’s revenue contribution and margins, food delivery cost structure, GMV growth, margin recovery in Hyperpure, and management’s commentary on store expansion plans and profitability timelines.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
