While revenue is forecast to grow in the range of 3.6–9% YoY, EBITDA margins are likely to contract due to a lower contribution from the US segment. Analysts also expect flat to modest growth in profit after tax (PAT), with some even projecting a decline. Investor focus will remain on the trajectory of the US business, pricing trends in key products, and recovery in India’s trade generics segment.
Estimates from PhillipCapital, Nuvama Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), and JM Financial were considered.
PAT
Brokerages expect Cipla’s net profit to range from Rs 1,140 crore to Rs 1,380 crore, reflecting a YoY change of -3% to +17.2%, depending on the impact of gRevlimid sales and margin dynamics.
- PhillipCapital: Rs 1,218 crore, up 2% YoY, 5% QoQ
- Nuvama: Core PAT at Rs 1,140 crore, down 3% YoY, 7% QoQ
- Motilal Oswal: Rs 1,209 crore, up 2.6% YoY
- JM Financial: Rs 1,380 crore, up 17.2% YoY, 13% QoQ
Revenue
Sales are projected to grow between 3.6% and 9% YoY, with modest sequential expansion. Strength in the India business is expected to offset subdued performance in the US.
- PhillipCapital: Rs 7,323 crore (+9% YoY | +9% QoQ)
- Nuvama: Rs 7,007 crore (+5% YoY | +4% QoQ)
- Motilal Oswal: Rs 6,933 crore (+3.6% YoY)
- JM Financial: Rs 7,049 crore (+6.4% YoY | +6.8% QoQ)
Brokerages expect US revenue to decline 12–13% YoY due to lower gRevlimid prices, weighing on margins. In contrast, the domestic formulations segment is projected to grow 8–9% YoY, supporting topline growth.
EBITDA & Margins
EBITDA estimates vary, with margins expected to contract YoY by about 100 basis points due to the drop in high-margin US sales. However, sequential improvement is likely.
- PhillipCapital: EBITDA at Rs 1,797 crore, up 5% YoY and 17% QoQ; margin at 24.5%, down 110 bps YoY, up 169 bps QoQ
Nuvama: EBITDA at Rs 1,715 crore, up 15% YoY and 12% QoQ; margin at 24.5% - Motilal Oswal: EBITDA at Rs 1,629 crore, down 5% YoY; margin at 23.5%
- JM Financial: EBITDA at Rs 1,834 crore, up 6.9% YoY and 19.3% QoQ (Note: EBITDA figure appears same as PAT; may require clarification)
Key monitorables
Investors should monitor trends in US revenues, margin outlook, and the recovery in trade generics volume.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
