Bajaj Finance Q1 Results Preview: Up to 20% YoY PAT growth seen, NII may jump up to 24%. 5 other metrics to track


Bajaj Finance will announce its Q1 earnings on Thursday, July 24, and brokerages are expecting another steady quarter for India’s largest NBFC, backed by robust AUM growth and healthy profitability. The company’s net profit is seen rising up to 19.5% YoY while the net interest income could grow in double digits up to 24% according to the estimates given by four brokerages.

Asset quality is expected to hold firm, with credit costs likely to moderate sequentially. Analysts will closely monitor updates on the company’s digital transformation, margin outlook, and commentary on growth guidance.

The estimates of Axis Securities, PhillipCapital, Kotak Institutional Equities and Emkay have been considered.

Here’s how Bajaj Finance could perform on these 7 metrics:

1. PAT

Brokerages anticipate Bajaj Finance’s net profit to range between Rs 3,912 crore and Rs 4,632 crore, translating to a YoY growth of 17.9%–19.5% and a QoQ uptick of 1.5%–2.9%.

  • Axis Securities: Rs 4,632 crore (+18.4% YoY | +1.9% QoQ)
  • PhillipCapital: Rs 4,613 crore (+17.9% YoY | +1.5% QoQ)
  • Kotak Equities: Rs 3,912 crore (+19.5% YoY | +2.9% QoQ)
  • Emkay: Rs 4,631 crore (+18% YoY | +2% QoQ)

Also Read: SBI Life Q4 preview: Up to 8% YoY growth seen in APE. Pressure likely in VNB, margins

2. NII & NIMs

Net Interest Income (NII) is projected to rise significantly, though margin movement is mixed.

  • Axis Securities: NII at Rs 10,279 crore (+22.9% YoY | +4.8% QoQ)
  • Emkay: Rs 10,371 crore (+24% YoY | +6% QoQ) | NIM at 11.76% (–41 bps YoY | +6 bps QoQ)
  • Kotak Equities: Rs 8,365 crore (+21.9% YoY | +4% QoQ) | NIM at 9.7% (–22 bps YoY | –14 bps QoQ)
  • PhillipCapital: NIM at 12.33% (+16 bps YoY | +63 bps QoQ)

3. PPoP

Operational performance remains resilient across brokerages.

  • Axis Securities: Rs 8,418 crore (+21.2% YoY | +5.7% QoQ)
  • Kotak Equities: Rs 6,947 crore (+21.2% YoY | +5.7% QoQ)
  • Emkay: Rs 8,400 crore approx. (~6% QoQ growth)

4. Asset quality

Provisions and credit costs are expected to decline QoQ, with asset quality holding steady.

  • Axis Securities: Provisions at Rs 2,223 crore (+32% YoY | –4.5% QoQ)
  • Kotak Equities: Rs 1,685 crore (+27.3% YoY | +7.9% QoQ)
  • Emkay: Credit cost at 2.08% (–21 bps QoQ) | GS3/NS3 at 1%/0.5%

5. EBITDA:

PhillipCapital estimates Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amorisation (EBITDA) Rs 8,802 crore, a likely 27% YoY and 10% QoQ uptick.

6. AUM

AUM growth remains a standout positive, expected to expand around 25–26% YoY and 6% QoQ, crossing Rs 4.4 lakh crore.

  • Axis Securities: AUM growth at 26% YoY and 5% QoQ
  • Emkay: AUM at Rs 4.4 trillion (+25% YoY | +5.9% QoQ)
  • Kotak: AUM growth at 25% YoY | +5.9% QoQ

7. Key monitorables:

  • Commentary on asset quality and credit cost trajectory
  • Progress on Loan Referral System (LRS) and tech-led initiatives
  • Any updates to FY26 growth guidance
  • Movement in borrowing costs and pricing discipline across portfolios

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)



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