On Friday, the Nifty rose 55.70 points, or 0.22%, to close at 25,461.
Commenting on the week’s action, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, attributed the profit booking to the sharp rally seen in recent sessions. He said mixed global cues and the impending U.S. tariff deadline have prompted investors to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. According to him, the broader economy stands to benefit from favorable conditions such as easing inflation and declining interest rates, though a positive outcome from the U.S.-India trade negotiations will be a key factor in lifting market sentiment.
He also highlighted that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have turned cautious amid elevated market valuations and mixed global cues, even as domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue to provide support, helping stabilize sentiment.
Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:
1) Trump tariffs
Investors in trade-sensitive sectors such as IT, pharma, and auto will closely track developments as the deadline for the pause on Trump-era tariffs ends on Wednesday, July 9. U.S. President Donald Trump has already stated that he is not considering an extension.
2) OPEC+ agrees to oil production hike
OPEC+ on Saturday agreed to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, further accelerating output increases at its first meeting since oil prices surged—and then retreated—following Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran. The cartel, which produces about half of the world’s oil, has reversed its earlier stance this year by agreeing to increase output and expand its market share.
The additional production is expected to prevent any sharp spike in oil prices. The trajectory of crude prices remains critical to the global inflation outlook.
U.S. WTI crude contracts settled at $66.50, down $0.50 or 0.75%, while Brent futures were hovering near $68.30, up $0.29 or 0.42%.
3) US markets
Indian markets will also take cues from Wall Street, which ended with sharp gains on Friday, buoyed by better-than-expected jobs data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,828.50, up 344.11 points or 0.77%, while the S&P 500 finished at a fresh record high, rising 51.93 points or 0.83% to 6,279.35. The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a new peak of 20,601.10, gaining 207.97 points or 1.02%.
4) Q1FY26 earnings
The earnings season kicks off this week with 42 BSE-listed companies set to announce their April–June quarter results. IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Avenue Supermarts (DMart), Anand Rathi Wealth, and Tata Elxsi are among the key names the Street will be watching closely.
5) IPO watch
Another action-packed week lies ahead, with the mainboard IPO of Travel Food Services set to open. The company has fixed the price band at Rs 1,045–1,100 per share.
In the SME segment, IPOs of Smarten Power Systems, Chemkart India, GLEN Industries, and Asston Pharmaceuticals will open for subscription. Meanwhile, the IPO of Happy Square Outsourcing Services will close on Monday.
Among the listings, Crizac will debut in the mainboard segment, while Vandan Foods, Cedaar Textile, Pushpa Jewellers, and Silky Overseas will make their market debut in the SME segment.
6) Corporate action
A number of corporate actions are scheduled this week, with record dates for dividends, rights issues, and bonus shares set across the five-day trading window. Nearly three dozen companies will be in focus, including Nifty constituents like Titan, JSW Steel, and Sun Pharmaceuticals.
Other widely tracked stocks that will see action include JK Cement, Ingersoll-Rand (India), Mphasis, Pfizer, Apollo Tyres, Balkrishna Industries, Can Fin Homes, and IDFC First Bank.
7) FII/DII Action
Market action will largely hinge on the behavior of foreign institutional investors (FIIs). On Friday, FIIs offloaded shares worth Rs 760.11 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,028.84 crore.
After being net buyers in April, May, and June, FIIs have turned net sellers in July so far, pulling out Rs 1,421 crore from Indian equities.
8) Technical Factors
Commenting on Nifty’s technical setup, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the daily chart of the 50-stock index shows the formation of a hammer pattern, which is typically seen as a bullish reversal signal. He identified key support at 25,300.
“As long as the index remains above this level, bullish sentiment is expected to persist, with the potential for a swift rebound. On the higher side, the index could advance towards 25,800–26,100 in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,500, and a breakout above this level could further strengthen the upward momentum,” De said.
9) Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee witnessed muted price action on Friday, ending the week little changed as traders awaited developments in U.S.-India trade talks. A positive outcome could potentially help the local currency break past a key resistance level. The rupee closed at 85.3925, down about 0.1% both for the day and the week.
The currency had touched a one-month peak of 85.25 in the previous session but pared gains on Friday after traders reduced bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, following stronger-than-expected labor market data.
Routine dollar demand from importers also weighed on the rupee during the session. “Market participants avoided aggressive bullish positions on the local currency to limit carry risk over the weekend,” a trader at a foreign bank said.
While the rupee has consistently failed to sustain a move above the technical resistance zone of 85.35–85.40 in recent sessions, a favorable trade deal with the U.S. may help it clear that hurdle, the trader added.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
