US President Trump has threatened a 30% tariff on EU and Mexico imports starting August 1. However, the EU responded by extending its suspension of countermeasures in hopes of reaching a negotiated settlement. Tensions cooled somewhat as Trump later signaled openness to further talks.
The MCX July gold futures were trading at Rs 98,420 around 11:15 am, up by Rs 400 or 0.4%. Prices on the COMEX hovered around $3,368.10 per troy ounce, gaining $9.80 or 0.3% at the same time.
“Gold continues to benefit from renewed global trade tensions as the US has extended its tariff pressure on key trade partners including Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, increasing market risk sentiment,” said Jateen Trivedi, Vice President, Commodity Research at LKP Securities. “Even without aggressive Fed dovishness, gold remains supported due to macro volatility,” he added.
Among domestic factors, the rupee outlook will remain key. “The Indian rupee is trading with volatility due to uncertainty in India-US trade negotiations. Tariff policy ambiguity adds pressure, keeping MCX gold marginally elevated over COMEX levels,” Trivedi said.
LKP Securities’ gold trading strategy is based on these 5 technical factors:
1. Key Support & Resistance
Gold continues to consolidate with a slight bullish bias, holding above the Rs 97,500 mark. A narrow trading range between Rs 97,300 and Rs 98,200 signals low volatility ahead of a possible breakout.
- Support Levels
- Immediate support: Rs 97,300
- Trendline & EMA support: Rs 96,500
- Strong positional base: Rs 95,100
- Resistance Levels
- Short-term resistance: Rs 98,200
- Breakout point: Rs 98,700
- Medium-term target: Rs 99,500 – Rs 100,000
Price has formed a short-term base, and bulls need a close above Rs 98,700 to resume upward momentum.
2. RSI (14) at 54.70
RSI has edged above the 50 mark, reflecting a recovery in momentum. While not strongly overbought, it supports a gradual accumulation strategy. Sustained RSI above 55 would confirm bullish strength.
3. Bollinger Bands in Tight Range
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting a volatility compression phase. Price is moving near the mid-to-upper band, and any close above Rs 98,200 could trigger a directional breakout, potentially testing Rs 99,500.
4. Moving Averages: EMA 8 & EMA 21
- EMA 8 (Red): Rs 97,900
- EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 97,850
Price is attempting to close consistently above both short-term EMAs, reflecting a slow shift in momentum. These levels now serve as strong intraday support, reinforcing a buy-on-dips strategy as long as Rs 96,500 remains intact.
5. MACD: Neutral to Bullish Bias
MACD remains in neutral territory, but the histogram has flattened and may soon turn positive if the price sustains above Rs 98,000. A crossover above the signal line would confirm fresh bullish momentum.
Gold Trading Strategy
- Buy on dips in the Rs 97,700 – Rs 97,900 zone
- Entry Zone: Rs 97,700 – Rs 97,900
- Stop Loss: Rs 96,300 on a closing basis
- Targets: Rs 98,700 / Rs 99,500 / Rs 100,000
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
