Street forecasts diverge on PAT and NII growth
ICICI Securities expects Yes Bank to report a 49.3% year-on-year (YoY) jump in PAT to Rs 749.90 crore, supported by a 4.8% YoY rise in NII to Rs 2,352.3 crore. The brokerage also anticipates a 22% YoY increase in pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) to Rs 1,079.9 crore.
“From Q1FY26 perspective, we see a 10–20bps QoQ NIM decline for most of the banks while Yes Bank could see stable NIM QoQ,” ICICI Securities said. The brokerage currently holds a ‘reduce’ rating on the stock.
In contrast, Emkay Global Financial Services estimates the bank’s NII may fall 1.7% year-on-year to Rs 2,204.8 crore, with PAT rising only 7.3% YoY to Rs 539.10 crore. Emkay expects pre-provisioning operating profit to climb 8.6% year-on-year to Rs 961.10 crore, but fall sharply by 27% on a sequential basis. The brokerage has a ‘sell’ rating on Yes Bank with a target price of Rs 16.
Nomura’s projections fall somewhere in the middle, with the brokerage forecasting PAT of Rs 630 crore, up 25% year-on-year but down 15% sequentially. Nomura sees NII declining 6% YoY to Rs 2,110 crore, and PPOP improving 9% year-on-year to around Rs 1,000 crore. Nomura maintains a ‘neutral’ view on the stock with a price target of Rs 18.
Loan growth steady, but near-term deposit pressure visible
In its operational update for Q1FY26, Yes Bank reported a quarter-on-quarter decline across key balance sheet lines, even as year-on-year figures reflect moderate growth from a low base.Loans and advances came in at Rs 2,41,355 crore, marking a 2.0% decline from the March quarter but a 5.1% rise from a year earlier. Total deposits slipped 3.0% sequentially to Rs 2,75,921 crore, though they were 4.1% higher on a year-on-year basis.
CASA deposits, often viewed as a bellwether of stable, low-cost funding, fell 7.3% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 90,347 crore, while rising 10.8% on a year-on-year basis. The CASA ratio dropped to 32.7% from 34.3% in the previous quarter, but remains above the 30.8% level recorded a year ago.
The bank’s credit-to-deposit ratio rose slightly to 87.5% from 86.5%, suggesting higher credit deployment. Liquidity metrics improved, with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) strengthening to 135.7% from 125.0% in Q4FY25, indicating greater short-term resilience.
Profitability, asset quality in investor spotlight
Commenting on the broader expectations, Smit Dasani, Research Analyst at INVasset PMS, said Yes Bank heads into its Q1 FY26 results with early indicators showing mixed trends across its balance sheet.
“Profitability and asset quality will dominate investor attention. Analysts estimate PAT growth in the mid-teens, assuming a steady net interest margin of around 3.3–3.4%. Non-interest income should get a boost from treasury gains and fee income initiatives. While the gross NPA ratio hovers near 2%, sequential depreciation is unlikely. However, provisioning could rise further, following a sharp rise in Q4, and tax costs may slightly compress earnings. Capital buffers remain solid, with CAR north of 17%,” said Dasani.
Also read | Yes Bank shares slip after mixed Q1FY26 operational update
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