The estimates of Axis Securities, Prabhudas Lilladher, Nuvama Institutional Equities, Nomura and Emkay have been taken into account.
Here’s what estimate across key metrics look like:
1. PAT: Strong profitability likely
Brokerage estimates peg ICICI Bank’s net profit in the range of Rs 11,649 crore to Rs 12,382 crore for Q1FY26, indicating a YoY growth of 3% to 12%. However, all brokerages see a decline in PAT on a sequential basis between 2% and 10%.
Axis Securities: PAT seen at Rs 11,693 crore, up 5.7% YoY and down 7.4% QoQ
Prabhudas Lilladher: Rs 11,649 crore, up 5.3% YoY and down 6.9% QoQNuvama: Rs 11,830 crore, up 6.9% YoY and down 6.4% QoQNomura: PAT — Rs 11,410, up 3% YoY and down 10% QoQ
Emkay: Rs 12,382 crore, up 12% YoY and down 2% QoQ
2. NII & NIMs: Growth slows; margins seen contracting
Net Interest Income (NII) is seen rising 7–9% YoY, with estimates ranging between Rs 20,877 crore and Rs 21,345 crore. However, NIMs are expected to contract both sequentially and YoY. Nomura estimates NIMs to drop by 12 bps QoQ, while others see a 7–14 bps contraction.
Axis Securities: Rs 20,877 crore, up 6.8% YoY and up down 1.5% QoQ
Prabhudas Lilladher: Rs 21,251 crore, up 8.7% YoY and up 0.8% QoQ
Nuvama: Rs 21,090 crore, up 7.8% YoY and down 0.5% QoQ
Nomura : Rs 21,050, up 8% YoY and down 1% QoQ
Emkay: 21,345 crore, up 9.2% YoY and up 0.7 QoQ
Nomura expects NIMs at 4.3% in Q1FY26, a likely decline of 7 bps YoY and 12 bps QoQ. Meanwhile Nuvama pegs it at 4.27%, which could be a 9 bps YoY decline and a 14 bps QoQ fall.
The bank should report higher margin contraction, but treasury gains coupled with lower LLP should support earnings, Emkay noted.
Also read: HDFC Bank Q1 results preview: PAT, NII may grow by up to 6% YoY. 7 key things to watch out for
3.PPoP: YoY rise seen but set for a sequential decline
Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is projected to grow 6–12% YoY, but decline 2–4% QoQ due to higher operating expenses and softer margins. Emkay is the most optimistic with a 1.4% QoQ increase in PPoP at Rs 17,909 crore.
Axis Securities: Rs 26,013 crore, up 8.9% YoY and down 2% QoQ
Prabhudas Lilladher: Rs 16,999 crore, up 6.1% YoY and down 3.1%
Nuvama: 17,140 crore, up 7% YoY and down 3% QoQ
Nomura: Core PPoP at Rs 16,930 crore, up by 6% YoY and down 4% QoQ
Emkay: Rs 17,909 crore, up 11.8 YoY and up 1.4 QoQ
4. Loans & deposits
Loan book growth is expected to remain robust at around 11–12% YoY and 2–2.5% QoQ. Deposits may grow at 12–15% YoY, though sequential growth is likely to be muted or flat, according to Nuvama and Nomura.
Prabhudas Lilladher: Loans seen at Rs 13,75,300 crore at the end of June quarter, up 12.4% YoY and up 2.5% QoQ.
Nuvama expects loan growth of 11.9% YoY and up 2% QoQ at Rs 13,68,600 crore while the deposits are seen at Rs 16,10,300 crore, up 12.9% YoY and flat QoQ.
Nomura pegs loan growth at 11% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs 13,63,200 and deposits at Rs 16,34,500, higher by 15% YoY and 1% QoQ.
5. Provisions & slippages
Axis Securities sees Q1 provisions at Rs 3,327 crore, up 27.9% YoY and up 4.2% QoQ while Nomura has estimated it at Rs 1,780 crore, rising by 33% YoY and 100% QoQ.
As for the slippages, Nuvama’s estimates are at Rs 5,890 crore, down 0.4% YoY and up 14.6% QoQ.
6. Credit cost
Credit costs may hover around 0.43–0.6% according to the estimates given by Prabhudas and Nomura.
At 0.6%, Nomura expects an 8 bps YoY and 27 bps QoQ increase. Prabhudas estimates a 1 bps YoY fall while a 16 bps QoQ growth.
7. Key Monitorables
Investors should keep a track on the commentary on deposit accretion and its impact on credit growth. NIM trajectory in light of the rate cycle is another important metric to watch out for.
Trends in asset quality and outlook on slippages along with the outlook on cost control and treasury income performance are other key monitorables.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
