Today’s inflation report has built some anticipation in the past week as markets try to cover some of their -selling positions, which took the to 96.50 lows on July 1st.
Since then, positive and another leg of the tech-AI boom have brought the USD back.
is again very close to record highs, and the is doing the same. Only the has been lagging on this move, based on the structural reshaping towards tech, particularly in the past week: rallied consequently to new highs (around $123,200), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:) passed $4 trillion in Market Cap.
Today’s CPI Preview will primarily focus on Forex pairs, where a decent turn in the US Dollar may shape currency flows for the ongoing second half.
Let’s see where the markets currently stand to get ready for the big number.
Expectations for the July CPI Report
Expectations are for a decent increase both to the and data – both at + 0.3% month-over-month – This will take the to 2.4% Y/Y and the to 2.8% Y/Y.
As a reminder, the Core excludes more volatile Food and Energy Prices but keeps a closer look on Services inflation which has stayed high throughout the past 3 to 4 years now and is a stickier problem for the , one of the reasons why Central Banks tend to focus more on the Core numbers.
One thing about this month’s release which, as a reminder, looks back at the June consumer prices, may have a fair difference between Headline and Core due to a spectacular week and a half rise in during the Israel-Iran War, which may have also impacted fertilizer prices, hence food prices throughout the end of the month.
This report will also be one of the last reports before the tariffs actually get implemented (if the TACO doesn’t materialize once again) – Therefore, markets may interpret this report as a basis for a before-and-after comparison.
Potential Reactions to the Number
Predicting market reactions will be a quasi-impossible task, due to the current state of Markets – There is uncertainty all around, with one ongoing theme being the post-TACO trade turning into real Tariff Fears, something to monitor in the absence of progress in trade discussions.
One sure thing is that, as mentioned in the introduction, there is some position covering in US Dollar selling, which has created some immediate tops and bottoms in some major currency pairs.
My take on potential reactions to the data (Due to the unpredictable nature of Markets, reactions may differ heavily):
A major beat (over +0.1%, the bigger the beat, the heavier the reaction) will create the most panic, leading to equities retracting from their highs, a major rise in Yields (US Treasuries selling), and the US Dollar strengthening significantly and pricing out September cuts.
A miss would most likely lead to some downside in the USD, a continued rally in Stock Indices, and some relief in Bond demand, Yields falling, and the pricing of some more cuts in September.
A flat reading would be leading to a small rise, then some consolidation in the USD and a potential minor top in Equities due to the still high expectations for the data – July cuts get priced out further, and cut premium in September starts to erode progressively for later meetings.
Technical Outlook for Forex Major Pairs
EUR/USD 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
has marked an intermediate Top since July 1st reversal in the USD marked at 1.1830. and prices recently broke the mid-May upward trendline that propelled the pair to its 2025 highs.
Since markets have formed an 800 pip-wide downwards channel, which is an element to keep an eye on for reversal of acceleration of the intermediate trend.
Levels to watch for:
Support Levels:
- 1.1650 Current Pivot
- 1.16 Resistance Zone turned Support (+/- 150 pips)
- 1.1450 to 1.1470 Last Pivotal Support
Resistance Levels:
- 1.1710 Channel Highs
- 1.17280 4H MA 50
- Main resistance 1.1830
GBP/USD 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
has retracted strongly since its 1.3750 July Highs, surpassing 2022 levels. Some Political mess-ups and general USD Strength have led to a strong reaction, with prices currently in oversold territory and nearing a key support.
One bigger thing to look at is a Death-Cross (50 MA going below 200), further strengthening the bearish momentum – A break of the 1.34 support will hint at an acceleration of the selloff.
Support Levels:
- 1.34 Support Zone
- 1.32 to 1.3250 Major higher timeframe support
Resistance Levels:
- 1.3550 Pivot in Confluence with MA 50 and 200
- 1.3750 to 1.3765 Main Resistance
USD/CAD 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
The pair is hanging right above the 1.37 handle which will be acting as a key barometer for demand.
Overall, the price action is still contained within a 2,500 pip range – US-Canada trade talks seem to be dawdling, therefore before seeing any further continuation in prices, it seems that Markets are mostly moving on USD Demand, despite some continuous beats in Canadian data.
Support Levels:
- Pivot zone 1.3675 to 1.3686 and 4H MA 200
- 1.3650 4H MA 50
- Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36
Resistance Levels:
- 1.3740 Pivot turned Resistance
- 1.38 Main Resistance
tests the extremes of its range in a calm Forex session
USD/CHF 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
has marked a first rebound at 2011 14 year lows and re-integrated its downwards channel – The pair has, however, not regained such high momentum compared to other Majors, trading in a tight (600 pip) range since the middle of last week.
The downtrend had been very consistent in the pair, with more than broader USD strength required for the pair to regain bullish momentum – One element to note for Bulls however is the pair passing above its 4H 50-period MA for the first time since early in May, a development to monitor closely.
Support Levels:
- 0.7956
- 0.79 Support
- 0.7873 Lows
Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Pivot 0.80
- 0.8050 Resistance and High of Channel
- 0.81320 MA 200
- 0.82 Main Resistance
NZD/USD 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
The Kiwi is starting to form some bearish signs, just breaking down from its yearly ascending channel and now trading below the 0.60 Psychological level.
Depending on the continuation of the US Dollar covering, the move may amplify but this will depend on the result of the inflation data.
Two elements to look for trading is: A re-entry or confirmation of the ascending range (light blue limits) and the confirmation of the 4H Death-Cross
Support Levels:
- 0.5930
- 0.59 Psychological Level
- 0.58466 May lows
Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Pivot 0.60
- 0.60220 to 0.60250 4H MA 50 and 200
- 0.6050
- 0.6110 to 0.6120 2025 Highs
AUD/USD 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
had been holding strong, particularly after last week’s surprise hold (cut expected) that added to some fundamental strength in the currency.
Recent retests of the previous week’s highs and consequent rejection are leading to the formation of a double top. If this holds today’s number, the following outlook will start to look more bearish. For now, AUD/USD is still holding its daily ascending range.
Support Levels:
- 0.6550 4H MA 50 as immediate Pivot
- 0.65 to 0.6510 Low of Channel and 4H MA 200
Resistance Levels:
- Swing Resistance and Double Top 0.6570 to 0.6580
- 0.66730 High of the upwards channel
