Analysts point to bullish technical signals and improving fundamentals, but they also warn of heightened volatility and critical resistance levels that could test investor conviction in the days ahead. Here’s what the charts, filings, and experts are signalling.
Momentum holds above key levels
Reliance Infrastructure shares were down slightly on Tuesday, slipping 0.3% to Rs 388.15 on the NSE, after last week’s rally driven by a credit rating upgrade and anticipation around a potential capital raise. Despite the dip, the stock is still up 4.7% over the past week, 53.3% in three months, 42% in six months, and 22.5% year-to-date.The stock continues to trade above all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, suggesting strong bullish undertones across both short- and long-term charts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 57.3, indicating the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the centre line, though below the signal line.
Reliance Infrastructure is displaying strong bullish momentum, trading well above its key moving averages and has remained resilient following its recent run-up, with no evident signs of exhaustion or bearish divergence in key momentum indicators such as the RSI or MACD, said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, adding that “elevated volumes on up-days suggest sustained buying interest and healthy participation.”
“Immediate support is placed in the Rs 365–380 zone, while resistance is seen around Rs 400; a decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a rally toward Rs 420–425,” said Mishra. For short-term traders, Mishra advises waiting for either a confirmed breakout or a healthy pullback toward support.
Anirudh Garg, Fund Manager and Partner at INVasset PMS, sees potential for even bigger moves. “On the upside, Rs 415–Rs 420 is an immediate resistance zone—the stock attempted to break out here recently but saw rejection, marking it as a short-term ceiling. Sustained move above Rs 420 could open gates toward Rs 500,” he said.
He also flagged key support levels at the lower end and said “on the downside, Rs 325–Rs 340 serves as strong support, aligned with previous breakout levels and volume clusters. A breach below that could trigger deeper retracement. The broader range remains Rs 340–Rs 420 unless either side is taken out with strong volume.”
Ratings boost and debt clean-up
Investor sentiment received a strong boost last week after India Ratings & Research upgraded Reliance Infrastructure’s credit rating from ‘IND D’ to ‘IND B/Stable/IND A4’—marking a three-notch improvement and ending its six-year-long ‘default’ classification.
The company said in its exchange filing, “This upgrade represents a significant improvement of three notches in the Company’s credit profile, achieved after six years at the IND D rating level. The upgrade also reflects the Company’s substantial deleveraging efforts, resulting in net zero debt with banks and financial institutions.”
Garg called the upgrade a “major fundamental shift,” adding that it was “triggered by its near-zero standalone debt and debt servicing improvement.”
He also pointed to the strength of the technical setup, noting, “Reliance Infrastructure has executed a decisive multi-year falling trendline breakout—a high-conviction technical event rarely seen with such clean structure… This isn’t a short-term rally; it’s the market re-rating a stock that has fundamentally cleaned up its balance sheet and reclaimed investor interest.”
Capital raise, defence contracts and turnaround earnings
A key test for investor confidence will come on Wednesday, July 16, when the company’s board is set to meet to consider a range of long-term capital-raising options. These include qualified institutional placements (QIP), equity-linked securities, and non-convertible debentures (NCDs), in one or more tranches. The company has said shareholder approval may also be sought, depending on the structure.
The timing is noteworthy, with the meeting coming just ahead of its Q1 FY26 results, where the company is expected to lay out its updated financial position and capital needs.
Earlier this year, Reliance Infra scored a legal reprieve after the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) suspended insolvency proceedings initiated by IDBI Trusteeship Services. The appellate body accepted Reliance Infra’s submission that it had fully repaid dues of Rs 92.68 crore to Dhursar Solar Power Pvt Ltd, clearing a major legal overhang.
The company is also diversifying strategically. It recently won a Rs 5,000 crore defence contract to manage a full-scale aircraft upgrade programme, becoming the first private Indian firm to independently handle such a project. Execution is expected to span 7–10 years.
Q4 FY25 earnings added fuel to the rally this year. Reliance Infrastructure reported zero standalone net debt to banks and financial institutions, after a Rs 3,300 crore reduction during the year. It posted a consolidated profit of Rs 4,387 crore, reversing a Rs 3,298 crore loss from the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA rose 681% to Rs 8,876 crore, and net worth increased 44% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 14,287 crore as of March 31, 2025.
Also read | Reliance Infra shares rally 4% after 3-notch credit rating upgrade
Risk-reward hinges on breakout
Despite a one-year beta of 1.6, analysts say the reliability of technical indicators remains intact. “RSI has held above 60 without whipsaws, showing steady momentum without false signals. MACD remains in a positive crossover zone, with no erratic swings that would typically signal indicator distortion,” said Garg.
“Reliance Infrastructure appears to be in a consolidation phase just below resistance. Entering at these levels carries moderate risk unless there’s a decisive breakout above Rs 420 with strong volumes,” he noted. “Ideal entries are either on a breakout confirmation or a pullback toward Rs 350–Rs 360, which aligns with past support zones and offers better risk-reward.”
With a critical board meeting on capital raising set for Wednesday and results season around the corner, traders and investors alike will be closely watching whether Reliance Infra can break past Rs 420 and head toward the much-speculated Rs 500 mark, or stall below it.
Also read | From bankruptcy to bull run: Can Reliance Infra and Reliance Power fuel Anil Ambani’s comeback saga?
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
