Gold futures have held steady, supported by cautious market sentiment following U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff stance targeting Canada, Brazil, and other key trade partners.
With this, analysts point to the broader macroeconomic picture, ranging from fiscal expansion in the U.S. to inflationary risks, as supportive of a sustained gold rally. Looking ahead, market participants and analysts anticipate continued positive movement for gold, albeit with near-term consolidation.
Emkay Wealth Management, in its latest Navigator report, stated that gold is in a “consolidation phase,” but such a phase “almost always prepares a launch pad for the yellow metal to move in an upward trend.”
The wealth manager attributes this to two main triggers: expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year and a possible decline in the U.S. dollar.
The report notes, “With the Fed on hold as it is still unclear about the likely impact of the tariffs on the US retail prices… the likelihood of the Fed going in for a rate cut or two before the end of this calendar year is very high.”Additionally, the weakening dollar, already down nearly 10% this year, is seen as laying the groundwork for further gains in gold.Providing the highest upside, analyst Rahul Kalantri, Vice President – Commodities at Mehta Equities, acknowledged gold’s recent gains, stating they were driven by mounting trade tensions and fresh policy risks.
He noted that Trump’s call for a massive 300 basis-point Fed rate cut had fueled expectations of a dovish shift, potentially stoking inflation concerns. Though strong labour data continues to moderate near-term rate cut probabilities, Kalantri’s outlook suggests potential strength ahead. Gold, he said, has resistance at Rs 97,110–97,380, which, if crossed, could pave the way for further upside.
Adding to this view, Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research emphasised that internationally, gold prices hold their support level of $3,280 per troy ounce and rebound again. He sees resistance building at $3,374 per ounce, implying that a break above could trigger a new leg in the rally.
Jain also noted that “Trump’s tariff uncertainty and weakness in the global equity markets could continue to push precious metals up.”
Kotak Securities echoed these sentiments, stating that gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. The brokerage observed that market pricing now suggests a 50-basis point cut in 2025, indicating that expectations for monetary easing are still alive despite some resistance from stronger-than-expected U.S. macro data.
ETMarkets.comAll factors considered, the outlook for gold remains tilted towards the positive, with consolidation likely serving as a base for potential breakout, driven by trade-linked uncertainty, policy risk, and a possible dovish pivot from the U.S. Fed.
While short-term resistance levels may cap immediate gains, analyst views suggest that the broader trend remains favourable for gold, especially if rate cuts and dollar weakness materialise as expected.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
